From a High of 121.02 in September 2001, the Dollar fell almost uninterruptedly for the next 6 ½ years to a Low of 70.70 in March 2008. Candlestick patterns subsequent to March 2008 indicated that the major underlying trend had changed from Down to Up. The first wave of that new Up trend ended in March 2009, concurrently with the onset of the Great Rally of 2009 in stocks. As the Rally progressed, the Dollar retreated, inversely thereto, until November 2009, at which time it turned positive again, thereby anticipating the end of the Rally. In June 2010 it peaked again, completing a bullish wave of one lesser degree than the major trend. It has been correcting. The correction is over, and the Dollar is now advancing again.
Therefore, the Dollar is now in “third waves Up” of both Primary degree and Intermediate degree. The Candlestick bar for the week of August 13 is a tall white candle which “bullishly engulfed” the three “Real Bodies” of the price bars which preceded it. This is a powerful reversal pattern. These “third waves Up” of two degrees of trend, working hand in hand, should drive the price of the Dollar to at least 100 before they are complete, possibly to 104, months from now.
Thereafter, we can expect a downside partial correction, being a fourth wave, which will be followed by a “fifth wave Up” that will carry the Dollar far above 100. That won’t happen soon; it’s many months – even years – in the future.
The Dollar is anything but dead. The rise in its value (as compared to other major currencies), now underway, will distress those who bet against it. The Candlestick patterns tell us that it will be a powerful advance.
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About the Author:
The author is a long-time investor and retired attorney. He has passed the NASD Series 65 Investment Adviser exam. He owns CandleWave, LLC, which publishes his Investment Newsletter. He is the developer and owner of the “Candelaabra” technical analysis system for use in all time frames in all financial markets. Candelaabra excels in ferreting out Reversals of Trend as they are forming and even before they emerge. The author is also the author of his new book “Candlesticks For Brighties.”
William Kurtz
August 30, 2010
http://www.candlesticksforbrighties.com
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